WTS: ICYYYYYY FRESH DROP from White Witch - a glacial staff - SOLD!!!!!

5.2

Just a few points for anyone thinking about getting in on the action:

1. This is the FIRST glacial staff to ever be up for auction, 2nd staff to drop since the start of these wonderful scrolls.
2. 1/200 drop rate makes this EXTREMELY rare. 1 white witch per instance = 1 chance per run. 1/200 drop rate does not mean kill 200 white witches and you’re guaranteed a glacial staff. You would need to kill 800+ to absolutely 100% GUARANTEE very likely get a drop. Could/would you get one sooner? Probably. But don’t confuse odds with probability. Every time you step into the instance, odds will always be 1/200 for the drop.
3. If (and when) another glacial staff does happen to drop, no telling if the owner will even sell it. There is a 1 of 1 flaming staff from Krampus, as far as I can tell, it never went up for sale. First glacial staff never went up for sale either. So moral of the story, you can try and play the waiting game but could be a long, long winter.

That's not how statistics work either. You are in no way guaranteed that this will drop, regardless of number of runs. It is 1/200 every run.

Good luck with the auction.

You're right, Probability does increase though. Probability for 800 runs would be roughly 98%. 1,000 runs would be 99.3%. 1,200 runs would be 99.7%. So 1,200+ runs "should" drop one but always have the .3% chance that it won't.

I think Puck's point is that the chances are not cumulative, the odds reset to 1/200 each time you open a new instance, you could get drops 5 consecutive runs, or go 3 years without a drop... like we have here, its been 3 years before that lotto hit again. It could happen again tomorrow or never. Its like rolling a 1 on a 200 sided die.

and just to keep it interesting

5.3m

I find it strange that all these rare things people have been wanting the past 3 years are now suddenly dropping in mass since Christmas. With that being said... I’ll be the idiot to buy this and it drops next week for me.

5.4

Yup, mentioned that as well:

Definitely said the guarantee part wrong so thanks to Puck for correcting me.

5.5 m

5.6

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This has yet to drop as well. Another from Krampus scroll that hasn't dropped either.

@Heresjohnny I saw you taking that pic at EC... awesome drop man!

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6.8

Got a little overbearing with the 7m bid and edited it back to 6.8 Hydrox?

7m

Didn't feel the need to be a jerk off.
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What I do with my pecker is my own business!