smithing

as gm smith im wondering if im doing something wrong, when i look at the guide to make a piece of plate it says i have a 20% chance of exceptional if my math is right that means that 1 piece in 5 should be exceptional or 2 in 10 etc. etc. but it doesnt explain why im having 6-8-10 consecutive failures. i make sure my toon is fed and everything else is right as far as i know. if im missing something someone please advise

random is random

Sometimes you just get a bad run of luck. Also, eating will have zero impact on smithing.

so im going to assume that the 20% exceptional chance is just crap and its a some times it works and other times it dont

20% is a rough mathematical average, based on rate over time. Its accurate; you are simply taking too small of a sample to see it. If you flip a coin 50 times, and get 45 heads -- it doesn't mean there wasn't a 50/50 chance to get it, it just means you didn't get tails 45 of those times.

The statistic is not additive. 20% chance every time.

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well i appreciate some of the response.
i just come to the conclusion that to be able to sustain this kind of loss trying to fill 1 of the larger colored bods and as rare as the higher colors are that the system seems to be heavily slanted in favor of the afk/multiple account/macro miners. IMHO i dont want do that because it seems it would lose some of the flavor of the game so ill just keep on keepin on and puttin the colored bods large and small in the trash barrel

Don't put them in the trash, I'm sure many people would buy/trade for them

^

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I like this guys style.