Dark Magic Awakens - A UO:Renaissance Holiday Event

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Yeah, that's a good way of putting it. Each cactus you get first is the first of a potential triple.

I believe this might be for dependent events, not independent. (but I could be wrong).
The formula doesn't change, whether it is coin flip or die roll. I think it is still, "calculating the chances of two or more independent events by multiplying the chances" thus:
1/7 * 1/7 * 1/7
or
1/7 ^3

Do you have a link or something I can read up on?
I was using: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

They are independent events, yes. But, you're assigning the odds of getting the first cactus *after* you got the second. That is where the error lies.

Whether you get cactus A, B, C, D, E, F, or G, as your first one, is irrelevant. Any of them could be the first in a triple run. Your odds of getting a cactus that could be the first in a triple are 7/7, or 100%.

Now, *given* the first cactus is, let's say "C". Now there is only 1/7 of the second cactus being a C. And there is only 1/7 of a cactus being a C. So your chances are:

(7/7)(1/7)(1/7) = 1/49

I have 3 Christmas Cacti blooming in my kitchen.
Will posting a pic increase odds?